Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Reasons to Expect the USD to Continue to Fall

Bryce Coward (Jul 18, 2017) - The Euro has spent the better part of the last decade being overvalued vs the USD. In 2015 the Euro finally became undervalued and early in 2017 it became one standard deviation undervalued. If the Euro rallied another 10% from here it would still only be fairly valued vs the USD on a Purchasing Power Parity basis.

The US fiscal position is highly correlated to the level of the US dollar index. If history is a guide, an expanding budget deficit would likely be accompanied by a falling USD. In the chart below we plot the US budget deficit/surplus (blue area, left axis, inverted) against the USD spot index (red line, right axis, inverted). We can see that over long periods of time this relationship holds quite closely.

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

SPX vs CBOE Equity Put / Call Ratio │ Extreme Greed

On Friday, July 14th the CBOE Equity Put / Call Ratio closed at 0.53, signalling extreme greed. On Monday, July 17th the SPX performed a narrow range inside day (IDnr 4 and IDnr7), and closed forming a neutral doji candle. However, on July 17th the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed at 0.63, and the 3-Day Moving Average (blue line) is about to turn up (down on the inverted scale).

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Wheat vs George Bayer Rule #14 │ July 14 or 17 Low (Fri or Mon)

This rule was found by measuring from the high of March 31, 1937 in Wheat. It is rather complicated for practical use, since exact measurements must be made with degrees, minutes and second [...] We use the single unit 1°9’13” [1.153611 degrees], also five times this unit or 6°55’18” [6.92166 degrees] or [...] 25 times the original 1°9’18” unit which value is 34°36’30” [34.60833 degrees]. All the measurements are to be used for geocentric longitude only. How I arrived at this 1°9’13” value I do not recall [...] During the period a planet moves retrograde we have to DEDUCT our increment, i.e. the values we use. When the motion of the planet is forward we have to ADD them. Be sure not to fail on this else no results can be expected. 
[George Bayer (1940): Stock and Commodity Traders´ Hand-Book of Trend Determination, p. 23 f., Carmel, California]
Update: July 18, 2017 07:02 AM: Wheat +1.78%

Saturday, July 8, 2017

Equities Expensive and Commodities Cheap?

Incrementum AG (Jun 1, 2017) - In a historical context, the relative valuation of commodities to equities seems extremely low. In relation to the S&P500, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) is currently trading at the lowest level in 50 years. 

The chart outlines the valuation of the GSCI relative to the S&P500. The GSCI comprises 24 commodities from all commodity sectors and serves as a benchmark for investment in the commodity markets and as a measure of commodity performance over time. If the ratio is low (green circles), it means that commodities are cheap relative to shares. If the ratio is at a high level (red circles), like during the Gulf Crisis in 1990, the prices of raw materials are relatively expensive.

The current ratio is 0.87 while the median is at 4.1. A return to the median gives 371% potential, but in most cases a rally doesn't stop at the median. In absolute terms, the scene seems set for a new bull market for commodities. According to Ned Davis Research, commodities gained 217% on average over the period of a bull market. 

Sunday, July 2, 2017

SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days | July 2017

Upcoming Cosmic Cluster-Days:
Jul 07 (Fri), Jul 15 (Sat), Jul 26 (Wed), Jul 28 (Fri), Jul 29 (Sat), Jul 30 (Sun), Aug 06 (Sun).

Saturday, July 1, 2017

Presidential-, Seasonal-, Decennial- and Composite Cycle | Q3 + Q4 2017

SPX vs Mercury - Venus Speed Differential | July 2017

SPX vs Mercury and Venus Parallel of Declination | July 12 (Wed)

On July 12 (Wed) Mercury and Venus will be parallel of declination at 19 degrees north (circled in red).
This usually entails a change in trend (+/- 1 CD).
 A parallel aspect is formed between two planets with the same declination or distance north or south of the ecliptic. If the planets are both North or both South of the ecliptic, the parallel aspect is read as a conjunction. If they are the same declination but one is North and one is South, then the contra-parallel is read as a 180 degree opposition.

SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | July 2017

 Upcoming Turn-Days:
Jul 04 (Tue), Jul 12 (Wed), Jul 21 (Fri), Jul 25 (Tue), Jul 31 (Mon), Aug 04 (Fri).

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

SPX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle | July 5 (Wed) High

The Low on June 27 (Tue) corresponds to the High on March 1 (Wed).
If the inverted polarity in the current 118 Day Cycle remains active, the SPX should move sideways-to-up into
July 5 (Wed), down into July 11 (Tue), and up again into July 23 (Sun).

Friday, June 16, 2017

SPX vs Sun - Mercury Speed Differential @ MIN | June 21 (Wed)

Jun 20 (Tue)    Summer Solstice
        Bradley CIT [geo]
        SoLunar Turn Day
        MER 120° VEN [helio]
        MER 120° JUP [helio]
        MER 180° SAT [helio]
        MER 060° URA [helio]
        VEN 120° JUP [helio]
Jun 21 (Wed)    SUN - MER Speed Dif @ MIN
        SUN 00
0° MER [geo] = MER 180° EAR [helio]
        MER @ 088° [helio]
        VEN 060° SAT [helio]
        MAR 180° PLU [helio]
        JUP - SAT Cycle Low
Jun 22 (Thu)    Bradley CIT [helio]
Jun 23 (Fri)    VEN Lat Cycle @ MIN

Sunday, June 11, 2017

Taxation of Average Income in OECD-Countries │ 2016

Data: OECD - Taxing Wages 2017 Database (SSC = Social Security Contribution).

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) analyzes how 35 countries tax wage-earners, making it possible to compare tax burdens across the world’s biggest economies. Each year, the OECD measures what it calls the tax wedge, the gap between what a worker gets paid and what they actually spend or save. Included are income taxes, payroll taxes, and any tax credits or rebates that supplement worker income. Excluded are the countless other ways that governments levy taxes, such as sales and value-added taxes, property taxes, and taxes on investment income and gains.

The highest average tax wedges for childless single workers earning the average national wage were in Belgium (54.0%), Germany (49.4%) and Hungary (48.2%). The lowest were in Chile (7%), New Zealand (17.9%) and Mexico (20.1%). The United States are in the bottom third (31.7%) - considerably below the OECD-average (36.0%). A single worker earning an average wage in Belgium ends up paying a tax rate almost eight times higher than the average single worker in Chile.

The tax wedge for families with children is lower than that for single individuals without children in all OECD countries except in Chile and Mexico, where both family types face the same tax levels. No Personal Income Tax is payable at the average wage level in Chile and no tax provisions for families with children exist in Mexico. The differences are particularly large in Canada, the Czech Republic, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg and Slovenia. 

Major Power's Military Expenditure │ 1830 - 2007

Source: OurWorldinData.

Max Roser and Mohamed Nagdy (2016) - There are two ways in which we might want to measure military spending; the first way is spending in real terms and the second is as a percentage of GDP. Military expenditure in real terms is important since the absolute level of expenditure matters for the outcome of war. The US spending 10% of its GDP fighting a war is likely to defeat a low or middle income country spending 50% or more of its GDP. Yet, military expenditure as a percentage of GDP allows us to get a handle on the priorities and ambitions of a country. The military expenditure of a country is largely determined by the whether it is at war or not. Outside of wartime, countries continue to spend substantial sums on maintaining their military capability. [Above] are two time series plots of military expenditure in real terms; the first is in thousands of 1900 UK pounds for the period 1830-1913, the second is in thousands of 2000 US dollars for the period 1914-2007. 

The UK’s military spending as a percentage of GDP in peacetime fluctuates around 2.5%, in times of war however, military spending rises dramatically. At the height of the Second World War, the UK was spending around 53% of its GDP on its military. Such a dramatic rise is consistent with the existential danger faced by the UK during the Second World War.

Sunspot Cycle Length vs Temperature Anomaly │ Jasper Kirkby

The sunspot cycle length as a measure of the Sun's activity:
Variation during the period 1861 - 1989 of the sunspot cycle length (solid curve)
and the temperature anomaly of the Northern Hemisphere (dashed curve).
The temperature data from the IPCC.

Jasper Kirkby (1998) - The sunspot cycle length averages 11 years but has varied from 7 to 17 years, with shorter cycle lengths corresponding to a more magnetically-active Sun. A remarkably close agreement was found between the sunspot cycle length and the change in land temperature of the Northern Hemisphere in the period between 1861 and 1989 [update HERE]. The land temperature of the Northern Hemisphere was used to avoid the lag by several years of air temperatures over the oceans, due to their large heat capacity. This figure covers the period during which greenhouse gas emissions are presumed to have caused a global warming of about 0.6°C. Two features are of particular note: firstly the dip between 1945 and 1970, which cannot be explained by the steadily rising greenhouse gas emissions but seems well-matched to a decrease in the Sun's activity, and secondly the close correspondence between the two curves over this entire period, which would seem to leave little room for an additional greenhouse gas effect.

[...] The observation that warm weather seems to coincide with high sunspot counts and cool weather with low sunspot counts was made as long ago as two hundred years by the astronomer William Herschel who noticed that the price of wheat in England was lower when there were many sunspots, and higher when there were few. See also HERE  

Data: SILSO Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Thursday, June 1, 2017

SPX vs Venus Latitude Cycle @ MIN | June 23 (Fri)

On June 23, 2017 the Latitude Cycle of Venus will reach a minimum at -2.73 degrees.

SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | June 2017

Upcoming Turn-Days: 
May 31 (Wed), Jun 08 (Thu), Jun 17 (Sat), Jun 19 (Mon), Jun 21 (Wed), Jun 29 (Thu), Jul 04 (Tue).

Cosmic Cluster Days | June — July 2017

Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days are:
Jun 01 (Thu), Jun 10 (Sat), Jun 14 (Wed), Jun 15 (Thu), Jun 27 (Tue), Jul 01 (Sat), 
Jul 07 (Fri), Jul 15 (Sat), Jul 26 (Wed), Jul 28 (Fri), Jul 29 (Sat), Jul 30 (Sun), Aug 06 (Sun).
Previous CCDs are HERE 

The basic assumption here is that heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets are related to financial market movements. A signal is triggered when the composite line of all aspects breaks above or below the Average Cosmic Noise Channel

Review: SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days April - May 2017 | Preview: June 2017.

SoLunar Map | June — July 2017

Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are: 
May 29 (Mon), Jun 01 (Thu), Jun 05 (Mon), Jun 09 (Fri) = Full Moon, Jun 13 (Tue), Jun 16 (Fri), Jun 20 (Tue), Jun 24 (Sat), Jun 27-28 (Tue-Wed), Jul 01 (Sat), Jul 05 (Wed), Jul 08 (Sat), Jul 12 (Wed), Jul 15 (Sat), Jul 19 (Wed), Jul 23 (Sun) = New Moon, Jul 27 (Thu), Jul 31 (Mon), Aug 03 (Thu).
We are currently in the alternated mode (second chart above).
Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

These charts depict the SoLunar bias for short-term movements of stock indices two months ahead. The markets are certainly influenced also by other planetary forces - especially longer-term - but a 3-5 day short-term rhythm and pattern is governed by the SoLunar forces (= 4 highs and 4 lows per lunar month). 

The SoLunar forces are a composite of Sun-Moon angles, orbital eccentricities, declinations and some long-term cycles. A Low in the SoLunar Map frequently is a High in the stock market and vice versa. Inversions occur, and if so, they should occur only once every 4 lunar months around a New Moon (max +/- 7 days). 

 The SoLunar Rhythm is frequently disturbed by (1.) the FED, and (2.) by sudden solar activity, altering the geomagnetic field, and hence the mass mood. This can result in the skip and/or inversion of pivots in the SoLunar Map. An increasing number of sunspots and flares have usually a negative influence on the stock market some 48 hours later, and vice versa (Ap values > 10 are usually short-term negative). A rising blue line in the SoLunar Map means the bias for the market is side-ways-to-up, and vice versa. Highs and lows in the SoLunar Map also may coincide with the start and termination of complex, side-ways correction patterns like zig-zags, triangles or flags. 

SPX vs SoLunar Map | June 2017 | Review & Preview