Wednesday, July 19, 2017

Reasons to Expect the USD to Continue to Fall

Bryce Coward (Jul 18, 2017) - The Euro has spent the better part of the last decade being overvalued vs the USD. In 2015 the Euro finally became undervalued and early in 2017 it became one standard deviation undervalued. If the Euro rallied another 10% from here it would still only be fairly valued vs the USD on a Purchasing Power Parity basis.

The US fiscal position is highly correlated to the level of the US dollar index. If history is a guide, an expanding budget deficit would likely be accompanied by a falling USD. In the chart below we plot the US budget deficit/surplus (blue area, left axis, inverted) against the USD spot index (red line, right axis, inverted). We can see that over long periods of time this relationship holds quite closely.

Tuesday, July 18, 2017

SPX vs CBOE Equity Put / Call Ratio │ Extreme Greed

On Friday, July 14th the CBOE Equity Put / Call Ratio closed at 0.53, signalling extreme greed. On Monday, July 17th the SPX performed a narrow range inside day (IDnr 4 and IDnr7), and closed forming a neutral doji candle. However, on July 17th the CBOE Equity Put/Call Ratio closed at 0.63, and the 3-Day Moving Average (blue line) is about to turn up (down on the inverted scale).

Wednesday, July 12, 2017

Wheat vs George Bayer Rule #14 │ July 14 or 17 Low (Fri or Mon)

This rule was found by measuring from the high of March 31, 1937 in Wheat. It is rather complicated for practical use, since exact measurements must be made with degrees, minutes and second [...] We use the single unit 1°9’13” [1.153611 degrees], also five times this unit or 6°55’18” [6.92166 degrees] or [...] 25 times the original 1°9’18” unit which value is 34°36’30” [34.60833 degrees]. All the measurements are to be used for geocentric longitude only. How I arrived at this 1°9’13” value I do not recall [...] During the period a planet moves retrograde we have to DEDUCT our increment, i.e. the values we use. When the motion of the planet is forward we have to ADD them. Be sure not to fail on this else no results can be expected. 
[George Bayer (1940): Stock and Commodity Traders´ Hand-Book of Trend Determination, p. 23 f., Carmel, California]
Update: July 18, 2017 07:02 AM: Wheat +1.78%

Saturday, July 8, 2017

Equities Expensive and Commodities Cheap?

Incrementum AG (Jun 1, 2017) - In a historical context, the relative valuation of commodities to equities seems extremely low. In relation to the S&P500, the Goldman Sachs Commodity Index (GSCI) is currently trading at the lowest level in 50 years. 

The chart outlines the valuation of the GSCI relative to the S&P500. The GSCI comprises 24 commodities from all commodity sectors and serves as a benchmark for investment in the commodity markets and as a measure of commodity performance over time. If the ratio is low (green circles), it means that commodities are cheap relative to shares. If the ratio is at a high level (red circles), like during the Gulf Crisis in 1990, the prices of raw materials are relatively expensive.

The current ratio is 0.87 while the median is at 4.1. A return to the median gives 371% potential, but in most cases a rally doesn't stop at the median. In absolute terms, the scene seems set for a new bull market for commodities. According to Ned Davis Research, commodities gained 217% on average over the period of a bull market. 

Sunday, July 2, 2017

SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days | July 2017

Upcoming Cosmic Cluster-Days:
Jul 07 (Fri), Jul 15 (Sat), Jul 26 (Wed), Jul 28 (Fri), Jul 29 (Sat), Jul 30 (Sun), Aug 06 (Sun).

Saturday, July 1, 2017

Presidential-, Seasonal-, Decennial- and Composite Cycle | Q3 + Q4 2017

SPX vs Mercury - Venus Speed Differential | July 2017

SPX vs Mercury and Venus Parallel of Declination | July 12 (Wed)

On July 12 (Wed) Mercury and Venus will be parallel of declination at 19 degrees north (circled in red).
This usually entails a change in trend (+/- 1 CD).
 A parallel aspect is formed between two planets with the same declination or distance north or south of the ecliptic. If the planets are both North or both South of the ecliptic, the parallel aspect is read as a conjunction. If they are the same declination but one is North and one is South, then the contra-parallel is read as a 180 degree opposition.

SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | July 2017

 Upcoming Turn-Days:
Jul 04 (Tue), Jul 12 (Wed), Jul 21 (Fri), Jul 25 (Tue), Jul 31 (Mon), Aug 04 (Fri).

Wednesday, June 28, 2017

SPX vs Inverted 4 Lunar Month Cycle | July 5 (Wed) High

The Low on June 27 (Tue) corresponds to the High on March 1 (Wed).
If the inverted polarity in the current 118 Day Cycle remains active, the SPX should move sideways-to-up into
July 5 (Wed), down into July 11 (Tue), and up again into July 23 (Sun).

Friday, June 16, 2017

SPX vs Sun - Mercury Speed Differential @ MIN | June 21 (Wed)

Jun 20 (Tue)    Summer Solstice
        Bradley CIT [geo]
        SoLunar Turn Day
        MER 120° VEN [helio]
        MER 120° JUP [helio]
        MER 180° SAT [helio]
        MER 060° URA [helio]
        VEN 120° JUP [helio]
Jun 21 (Wed)    SUN - MER Speed Dif @ MIN
        SUN 00
0° MER [geo] = MER 180° EAR [helio]
        MER @ 088° [helio]
        VEN 060° SAT [helio]
        MAR 180° PLU [helio]
        JUP - SAT Cycle Low
Jun 22 (Thu)    Bradley CIT [helio]
Jun 23 (Fri)    VEN Lat Cycle @ MIN

Sunday, June 11, 2017

Taxation of Average Income in OECD-Countries │ 2016

Data: OECD - Taxing Wages 2017 Database (SSC = Social Security Contribution).

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) analyzes how 35 countries tax wage-earners, making it possible to compare tax burdens across the world’s biggest economies. Each year, the OECD measures what it calls the tax wedge, the gap between what a worker gets paid and what they actually spend or save. Included are income taxes, payroll taxes, and any tax credits or rebates that supplement worker income. Excluded are the countless other ways that governments levy taxes, such as sales and value-added taxes, property taxes, and taxes on investment income and gains.

The highest average tax wedges for childless single workers earning the average national wage were in Belgium (54.0%), Germany (49.4%) and Hungary (48.2%). The lowest were in Chile (7%), New Zealand (17.9%) and Mexico (20.1%). The United States are in the bottom third (31.7%) - considerably below the OECD-average (36.0%). A single worker earning an average wage in Belgium ends up paying a tax rate almost eight times higher than the average single worker in Chile.

The tax wedge for families with children is lower than that for single individuals without children in all OECD countries except in Chile and Mexico, where both family types face the same tax levels. No Personal Income Tax is payable at the average wage level in Chile and no tax provisions for families with children exist in Mexico. The differences are particularly large in Canada, the Czech Republic, Germany, Ireland, Luxembourg and Slovenia. 

Major Power's Military Expenditure │ 1830 - 2007

Source: OurWorldinData.

Max Roser and Mohamed Nagdy (2016) - There are two ways in which we might want to measure military spending; the first way is spending in real terms and the second is as a percentage of GDP. Military expenditure in real terms is important since the absolute level of expenditure matters for the outcome of war. The US spending 10% of its GDP fighting a war is likely to defeat a low or middle income country spending 50% or more of its GDP. Yet, military expenditure as a percentage of GDP allows us to get a handle on the priorities and ambitions of a country. The military expenditure of a country is largely determined by the whether it is at war or not. Outside of wartime, countries continue to spend substantial sums on maintaining their military capability. [Above] are two time series plots of military expenditure in real terms; the first is in thousands of 1900 UK pounds for the period 1830-1913, the second is in thousands of 2000 US dollars for the period 1914-2007. 

The UK’s military spending as a percentage of GDP in peacetime fluctuates around 2.5%, in times of war however, military spending rises dramatically. At the height of the Second World War, the UK was spending around 53% of its GDP on its military. Such a dramatic rise is consistent with the existential danger faced by the UK during the Second World War.

Sunspot Cycle Length vs Temperature Anomaly │ Jasper Kirkby

The sunspot cycle length as a measure of the Sun's activity:
Variation during the period 1861 - 1989 of the sunspot cycle length (solid curve)
and the temperature anomaly of the Northern Hemisphere (dashed curve).
The temperature data from the IPCC.

Jasper Kirkby (1998) - The sunspot cycle length averages 11 years but has varied from 7 to 17 years, with shorter cycle lengths corresponding to a more magnetically-active Sun. A remarkably close agreement was found between the sunspot cycle length and the change in land temperature of the Northern Hemisphere in the period between 1861 and 1989 [update HERE]. The land temperature of the Northern Hemisphere was used to avoid the lag by several years of air temperatures over the oceans, due to their large heat capacity. This figure covers the period during which greenhouse gas emissions are presumed to have caused a global warming of about 0.6°C. Two features are of particular note: firstly the dip between 1945 and 1970, which cannot be explained by the steadily rising greenhouse gas emissions but seems well-matched to a decrease in the Sun's activity, and secondly the close correspondence between the two curves over this entire period, which would seem to leave little room for an additional greenhouse gas effect.

[...] The observation that warm weather seems to coincide with high sunspot counts and cool weather with low sunspot counts was made as long ago as two hundred years by the astronomer William Herschel who noticed that the price of wheat in England was lower when there were many sunspots, and higher when there were few. See also HERE  

Data: SILSO Royal Observatory of Belgium.

Thursday, June 1, 2017

SPX vs Venus Latitude Cycle @ MIN | June 23 (Fri)

On June 23, 2017 the Latitude Cycle of Venus will reach a minimum at -2.73 degrees.

SPX vs Jupiter – Saturn Cycle | June 2017

Upcoming Turn-Days: 
May 31 (Wed), Jun 08 (Thu), Jun 17 (Sat), Jun 19 (Mon), Jun 21 (Wed), Jun 29 (Thu), Jul 04 (Tue).

Cosmic Cluster Days | June — July 2017

Upcoming Cosmic Cluster Days are:
Jun 01 (Thu), Jun 10 (Sat), Jun 14 (Wed), Jun 15 (Thu), Jun 27 (Tue), Jul 01 (Sat), 
Jul 07 (Fri), Jul 15 (Sat), Jul 26 (Wed), Jul 28 (Fri), Jul 29 (Sat), Jul 30 (Sun), Aug 06 (Sun).
Previous CCDs are HERE 

The basic assumption here is that heliocentric and geocentric angles between planets are related to financial market movements. A signal is triggered when the composite line of all aspects breaks above or below the Average Cosmic Noise Channel

Review: SPX vs Cosmic Cluster Days April - May 2017 | Preview: June 2017.

SoLunar Map | June — July 2017

Upcoming SoLunar Turn-Days are: 
May 29 (Mon), Jun 01 (Thu), Jun 05 (Mon), Jun 09 (Fri) = Full Moon, Jun 13 (Tue), Jun 16 (Fri), Jun 20 (Tue), Jun 24 (Sat), Jun 27-28 (Tue-Wed), Jul 01 (Sat), Jul 05 (Wed), Jul 08 (Sat), Jul 12 (Wed), Jul 15 (Sat), Jul 19 (Wed), Jul 23 (Sun) = New Moon, Jul 27 (Thu), Jul 31 (Mon), Aug 03 (Thu).
We are currently in the alternated mode (second chart above).
Previous SoLunar Maps HERE

These charts depict the SoLunar bias for short-term movements of stock indices two months ahead. The markets are certainly influenced also by other planetary forces - especially longer-term - but a 3-5 day short-term rhythm and pattern is governed by the SoLunar forces (= 4 highs and 4 lows per lunar month). 

The SoLunar forces are a composite of Sun-Moon angles, orbital eccentricities, declinations and some long-term cycles. A Low in the SoLunar Map frequently is a High in the stock market and vice versa. Inversions occur, and if so, they should occur only once every 4 lunar months around a New Moon (max +/- 7 days). 

 The SoLunar Rhythm is frequently disturbed by (1.) the FED, and (2.) by sudden solar activity, altering the geomagnetic field, and hence the mass mood. This can result in the skip and/or inversion of pivots in the SoLunar Map. An increasing number of sunspots and flares have usually a negative influence on the stock market some 48 hours later, and vice versa (Ap values > 10 are usually short-term negative). A rising blue line in the SoLunar Map means the bias for the market is side-ways-to-up, and vice versa. Highs and lows in the SoLunar Map also may coincide with the start and termination of complex, side-ways correction patterns like zig-zags, triangles or flags. 

SPX vs SoLunar Map | June 2017 | Review & Preview

Wednesday, May 31, 2017

SPX vs AstroComposite Projection | June 2017

Upcoming Turn-Days: Jun 06 (Tue), Jun 15 (Thu), Jun 20 (Tue), Jun 28 (Wed).

Tuesday, May 30, 2017

SPX vs Jupiter Stationary Direct │ June 09 (Fri)

 On June 09 (Fri) Jupiter will be stationary direct at 193.22 degrees longitude.

SPX vs Saturn's Geocentric = Heliocentric Longitude │ June 14 (Wed)

On June 14 (Wed) Saturn's geocentric Longitude (264.52 degrees) will equal 
the heliocentric Longitude (264.49 degrees).

Friday, May 26, 2017

Bitcoin Bubble │ Re-Emerging Asian Fever

Source: CryptoCompare BTC/USD Index
Continuing its stellar rise, and adding more than 30% to its value in just a week, on May 25 (Thu) one Bitcoin was worth USD 2,768.32, way over twice as much as one ounce of gold. After crashing more than USD 500 from its intraday highs in less then 9 hours (-18.6%), Bitcoin has bounced back USD 300 off its intraday lows extending gains into what is likely to be another frenetic Asian session. While there are numerous drivers of the recent action, 'scaling' and 'asian fever' are the greatest factors with Japanese and Korean premia exploding.

Bitcoin has risen 170% over the last three months to reach a capitalisation of USD 40 billion according to the CryptoCompare BTC/USD Index, Ethereum too has seen its market capitalisation jump 330% in the past three months to reach USD 20bn according to the CryptoCompare BTC/ETH Index. It is Japan, Korea and Asian interest that is causing the price to rise and dragging up Western prices on the back of regulatory moves as well as scaling. This is the total market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies:  

Source: CryptoCurrency Market Capitalizations

To date that has mostly meant Bitcoin, but over the last two months Bitcoin’s share of cryptocurrency capitalization has actually plummeted to less than 50%, thanks to the sharp rise of Ethereum and Ripple in particular: 

Source: CryptoCurrency Market Capitalizations

This news is the latest bit of good news for the Bitcoin: 

Wednesday, May 24, 2017

US Public Pensions System | Insolvent to the Core

True Economics (May 22, 2017) - A truly worrying view of the U.S. public sector pensions deficits has been revealed in a new study by Joshua D. Raugh for Hoover Institution. Titled “Hidden Debt, Hidden Deficits” the study opens up with a dire warning we all have been aware of for some years now: “Most state and local governments in the United States offer retirement benefits to their employees in the form of guaranteed pensions. To fund these promises, the governments contribute taxpayer money to public systems. Even under states’ own disclosures and optimistic assumptions about future investment returns, assets in the pension systems will be insufficient to pay for the pensions of current public employees and retirees. Taxpayer resources will eventually have to make up the difference.

Some details: “most public pension systems across the United States still calculate both their pension costs and liabilities under the assumption that their contributed assets will achieve returns of 7.5–8 percent per year. This practice obscures the true extent of public sector liabilities.” In other words, public pension funds produce outright lies when it comes to the investment returns they promise to generate. This, in turn, generates delayed liabilities that are carried into the future, when realised returns come in at some 3-4 percent per annum, instead of promised 7.5-8 percent.

How big is the hole? “In aggregate, the 564 state and local systems in the United States covered in this study reported $1.191 trillion in unfunded pension liabilities (net pension liabilities) under GASB 67 in FY 2014. This reflects total pension liabilities of $4.798 trillion and total pension assets (or fiduciary net position) of $3.607 trillion.” This accounts for roughly 97% of all public pension funds in the U.S. Taking into the account the pension funds’ penchant for manipulating (in their favor) the discount rates, the unfunded public sector pensions liabilities rise to $4.738 trillion [...]
What is in fact going on is that the governments are borrowing from workers and promising to repay that debt when they retire. The accounting standards allow the bulk of this debt to go unreported due to the assumption of high rates of return.


Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Revenue Streams of the Five Largest Tech Companies

Source: Visual Capitalist.

History of US Unemployment Rate

Source: Joseph Lavorgna, Deutsche Bank.

Geometry of Infinite Mind | Ernest Emery Richards

Ernest Emery Richards (1990) - All life on Earth has developed under the influence of this geomagnetic field which varies in structure and dynamic properties via geomagnetic pulsations. These pulsations are due to the interaction of the plasma waves coming from throughout the Solar System and Cosmos and interacting with the Earth's magnetosphere.

Solar System and Brainwave Frequencies.

When our brain and body rhythms are measured electromagnetically, they are found to occur prominently within what is termed the ELF (extremely low frequency) spectrum and lower. This brainwave spectrum is also divided into band segments, called the alpha (greatest amplitude)(8 to 16 Hz.), beta (16 to 32 Hz.), theta (4 to 8 Hz.), delta (2 to 4 Hz.), and zeta (1 to 2 Hz.), ranging from 32 cycles per second (Hertz) and down below 1 cps (Hz.).

Earth Frequencies.
The measurable presence of these different frequencies seems to indicate changes in individual consciousness. An example might be that a relaxed, attentive state develops strong alpha wave rhythms; these are also the prominent Earth resonant frequency ranges. The theta rhythms are found to occur during the dream period, and also while experiencing a spontaneous creative, intuitive state. The theta frequencies are seen to have strong lunar rhythm harmonics. The Moon has long been associated with our intuitive, creative capacity.

When calculations are performed related to the solar system and the planets, it is found that all of the planets and most of their moons have frequency aspects which fall within our brainwave spectrum. All of the planetary systems have electromagnetic field structures and prominent magnetospheric frequencies. Our home solar system forms a complex, harmonically interrelating, multi-octave musical instrument composed of over forty octaves of vibrational interplay. Your brain/body structure resonates to those continually fluctuating field patterns as they beat against the Earth's, Moon's, and Sun's natural rhythms.

[...] The Earth sets up a pattern of electromagnetic vibrations between its circumference frequency, around 7.5 Hertz (cycles per second) and its radius frequency of 47 Hertz (Hz.). The atmospheric cavity Schumann Resonance spectrum has been measured via electronic detection instruments. This Schumann Resonance, which occurs within the Earth and its surrounding energy field, has immediate impact upon planetary life-forms. When we measure our own brainwave electromagnetic signals, we see displayed these very same Earth vibrations. Since the Earth is very much alive vibrationally, these electromagnetic signals are continually changing and interacting.

Sunday, May 21, 2017

Telepathy on a Global Scale │ Michael Persinger

No more secrets.” (HERE)
Suppose you had access to every person’s brain, and they had access to yours?” asks Dr. Michael Persinger (HERE), cognitive neuroscientist and professor at Laurentian University in Ontario. Dr. Persinger is convinced that this is not only possible but is immanent in the coming future. His pioneering research (HERE) shows a strong correlation between the Earth’s magnetic field and the human brain: Very small changes in the activity of the Earth’s magnetic field due to alterations in solar activity can affect all human beings. These direct effects are primarily upon the subtle but complex electromagnetic fields that interact with everyone’s consciousness due to the marked similarity of the characteristics of our brains and our genetic history. This creates the potential for the function of every person’s brain activity to be changed without their awareness. If Michael Persinger is correct, the Earth’s magnetic field is constantly interfacing with our own brains in such a manner as to influence our thoughts, emotions and behaviors. This interface, however, seems to have another effect: Dr. Persinger’s research seems to indicate that the geomagnetic field can store and transmit all the information of every human brain in history. And if this informational reservoir can be tapped into, there will be no more secrets.

Monday, May 15, 2017

Japan's Shrinking Work Force | 1970 - 2065

Japan's working-age population peaked in 1995 at 87 million and has been falling ever since.
The government expects it to fall to 76 million this year and to 45 million by 2065.
Source: Reuters.

Tuesday, May 9, 2017

A Demographic Theory of War | Gunnar Heinsohn's Youth Bulge Options

Today approximately 44 percent of the world’s 7.2 billion people are under 24 years old - and 26 percent are under 14. A staggering 82 percent live in less developed regions of the world – primarily sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. Currently, the global median age is 29.2 years, a sharp contrast to Europe, for example, where the median age is 41. Of the 20 states with the lowest median ages worldwide, 18 are in sub-Saharan Africa. The UN predicts that the median age will rise to 42 years by the century’s end, and with it the world’s population will increase to 10.9 billion people. Developing and least developed countries have the highest fertility rates and many are expected to triple in population by 2100. The populations of Burkina Faso, Malawi, Niger, Mali, Somalia, Uganda, Tanzania and Zambia are predicted to increase by 500%. In these countries demographic pressure is already responsible for food scarcity, water scarcity, malnutrition, and disease. 

The Youth Bulge Theory attempts to explain and to predict social conflict, migration, conquest and war, and was first introduced by the CIA in 1995 (The Demographic Backdrop to Ethnic Conflict: A Geographic Overview). Youth bulge specifically refers to a disproportionate percentage of a state population being between the ages of 15 and 24 years old. But the main point of the Youth Bulge Theory is that an excess in especially young adult male population predictably leads to social unrest, war and terrorism, as the third and fourth sons that find no prestigious positions in their existing societies rationalize their impetus to compete by religion or political ideology. 

In his study Söhne und Weltmacht (Sons and World Power: Terror in the Rise and Fall of Nations; 2003) German genocide expert Gunnar Heinsohn investigated family size in various societies in relation to the frequency of violent conflict since 1500 A.D. He concluded, that the presence of large numbers of young men in nations that have experienced population explosions — all searching for respect, work, sex and meaning — tend to turn into violent countries and become involved in wars. Heinsohn’s demographic materialism is not concerned with the absolute size of populations, but rather with the share of teenagers and young men. If the population under the age of 20 becomes 40% or more compared to the total, society is facing a youth bulge. Serious problems start when families begin to produce three, four or more sons.  Faced with limited resources, the surplus sons' competition for power and prestige does only leave six options: #1 Violent Crime, #2 Civil War, #3 Revolution, #4 Emigration, #5 Genocide, and #6 War of Conquest or Colonization.  
This is a man's world:
Somali surplus sons warming up for option #2.
Youth bulge can be seen as one factor among many in explaining social unrest and uprisings in society. But Heinsohn essentially claims that most historical periods of social unrest are lacking external triggers (such as rapid climatic changes or other catastrophic changes of the environment). Even most genocides can be readily explained as a result of a built-up youth bulge, including European colonialism, 20th-century fascism, the rise of Communism during the Cold War, the Arab Spring, and ongoing conflicts such as in Somalia, South Sudan, Central African Republic or in Mali. Since more than a decade Heinsohn keeps warning Western politicians about the too many angry young men outside the Euro-American world today — above all, too many Muslim young men in the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa. He considers them one of the principal threats to the West in the first quarter of the 21st century, and illustrates this also in the recent examples of Afghanistan and Iraq: Since 1950, Iraqi fathers of all ethnic and religious groups have sired, on the average, three to four sons. They produced a youth bulge. Saddam Hussein canalized this youth bulge in the options #4 to #6 (genocide, war of conquest, numerous Iraqis went into exile). Following Saddam's removal from power the competition for positions of power was transformed into a civil war (option #2) that is being driven by a massive wave of sons. It may not be easy to recognize the current violence as a civil war, because the Americans and their allies are fighting on one of the sides. But the fact that this was a civil war would become clear through its continuation once the US at her allies withdraw. The same phenomenon could be seen — according to Heinsohn in Afghanistan (see video clip HERE) where the enormous surplus of sons could never be absorbed, in spite of the recruitment of large numbers of police and military personnel. War would therefore inevitably continue in one way or another even after the withdrawal of Western troops.