Crush Europe and Strengthen the U.S. | RAND Corporation

January 25, 2022 

Confidential

Distribution: WHCS, ANSA, Dept. of State, CIA, NSA, DNC 

 

Executive Summary

[...] The current German economic model is based on two pillars. These are unlimited access to cheap Russian energy resources and to cheap French electric power, thanks to the operation of nuclear power plants. The importance of the first factor is considerably higher. Halting Russian supplies can well create a systemic crisis that would be devastating for the German economy and, indirectly, for the entire European Union. The French energy sector could also soon begin to experience heavy problems. The predictable stop of Russian-controlled nuclear fuel supplies, combined with the unstable situation in the Sahel region, would make French energy sector critically dependent on Australian and Canadian fuel.

 

"A reduction in Russian energy supplies - ideally, a complete halt of such supplies -
would lead to disastrous outcomes for German industry." - RAND Corporation, Jan 25, 2022.

 

[...] The only feasible way to guarantee Germany's rejection of Russian energy supplies is to involve both sides in the military conflict in Ukraine. Our further actions in this country will inevitably lead to a military response from Russia. Russians will obviously not be able to leave unanswered the massive Ukrainian army pressure on the unrecognized Donbas republics. That would make possible to declare Russia an aggressor and apply to it the entire package of sanctions prepared beforehand. Putin may in turn decide to impose limited counter-sanctions - primarily on Russian energy supplies to Europe. Thus, the damage to the EU countries will be quite comparable to the one to the Russians, and in some countries - primarily in Germany - it will be higher.

 

The prerequisite for Germany to fall into this trap is the leading role of green parties and ideology in Europe. The German Greens are a strongly dogmatic, if not zealous, movement, which makes it quite easy to make them ignore economic arguments. In this respect, the German Greens somewhat exceed their counterparts in the rest of Europe. Personal features and the lack of professionalism of their leaders - primarily Annalena Baerbock and Robert Habeck - permit to presume that it is next to impossible for them to admit their own mistakes in a timely manner.

 

Thus, it will be enough to quickly form the media image of Putin’s aggressive war to turn the Greens into ardent and hardline supporters of sanctions, a ‘party of war’. It will enable the sanctions regime to be introduced without any obstacles. The lack of professionalism of the current leaders will not allow a setback in the future, even when the negative impact of the chosen policy becomes obvious enough [...] This will ensure a sufficiently long gap in cooperation between Germany and Russia, which will make large German economic operators uncompetitive.

"The prerequisite for Germany to fall into this trap is the leading role of the German Greens."

[...] A reduction in Russian energy supplies - ideally, a complete halt of such supplies - would lead to disastrous outcomes for German industry. The need to divert significant amounts of Russian gas for winter heating of residential and public facilities will further exacerbate the shortages [...] A complete standstill at the largest in the chemical, metallurgical, and machine-building, plants is likely, while they have virtually no spare capacity to reduce energy consumption. It could lead to the shutting down of continuous-cycle enterprises, which would mean their destruction.

The cumulative losses of the German economy can be estimated only approximately. Even if the restriction of Russian supplies is limited to 2022, its consequences will last for several years, and the total losses could reach 200-300 billion euros. Not only will it deliver a devastating blow to the German economy, but the entire EU economy will inevitably collapse. We are talking not about a decline in economy growth pace, but about a sustained recession and a decline in GDP only in material production by 3-4% per year for the next 5-6 years. Such a fall will inevitably cause panic in the financial markets and may bring them to a collapse.

The euro will inevitably, and most likely irreversibly, fall below the dollar. A sharp fall of the euro will consequently cause its global sale. It will become a toxic currency, and all countries in the world will rapidly reduce its share in their forex reserves. This gap will be primarily filled with dollar and yuan.

 

NATO's purpose is "keep the Russians out, the Americans in, and the Germans down",
as Lord Hastings Lionel Ismay, NATO's first Secretary General, put it.

Another inevitable consequence of a prolonged economic recession will be a sharp drop in living standards and rising unemployment (up to 200,000-400,000 in Germany alone), which will entail the exodus of skilled labour and well-educated young people. There are literally no other destinations for such migration other than the United States today. A somewhat smaller, but also quite significant flow of migrants can be expected from other EU countries.

 

Since 1871 the prime U.S. geopolitical foreign policy doctrine for Europe is:
"Keep Germany and Russia separate and in conflict."
Or as Victoria Nuland put it in 2014: "Fuck the EU!"

The scenario under consideration will thus serve to strengthen the national financial condition both indirectly and most directly. In the short term, it will reverse the trend of the looming, economic recession and, in addition, consolidate American society by distracting it from immediate economic concerns. This, in turn, will reduce electoral risks.

In the medium term (4-5 years), the cumulative benefits of capital flight, re-oriented logistical flows and reduced competition in major industries may amount to USD 7-9 trillion. Unfortunately, China is also expected to benefit over the medium term from this emerging scenario. At the same time, Europe's deep political dependence on the U.S. allows us to effectively neutralise possible attempts by individual European states to draw closer to China [...]

Quoted from:
RAND Corporation (Jan 25, 2022) - Executive Summary: Weakening Germany, Strengthening the U.S.

See also:

Hans-Benjamin Braun (Apr 07, 2023) - Nord Stream Pipeline Blast by US-Nuke. 

Michel Chossudovsky (Aug 30, 2023) - Niger’s Military Junta is Supported by the Pentagon.

Washington’s Unspoken Objective: “Remove France from Africa”.

Max Blumenthal & Aaron Maté (2023) - German Greens, the world's most hypocritical party? (video)

 Bruno Maçães (2018) - Greater Eurasia: Russia’s New Energy Gamble.

Financial Fascism - The Elimination of Physical Currency

“Fascism should more appropriately be called Corporatism because it is a merger of
state and corporate power.” ― Benito Mussolini, 1932

Paul Joseph Watson (Aug 28, 2015) - The Financial Times has published an anonymous article which calls for the abolition of cash in order to give central banks and governments more power. Entitled "The case for retiring another ‘barbarous relic’", the article laments the fact that people are stockpiling cash in anticipation of another economic collapse, a factor which is causing, “a lot of distortion to the economic system.”

“The existence of cash — a bearer instrument with a zero interest rate — limits central banks’ ability to stimulate a depressed economy. The worry is that people will change their deposits for cash if a central bank moves rates into negative territory,” states the article. Complaining that cash cannot be tracked and traced, the writer argues that its abolition would, “make life easier for a government set on squeezing the informal economy out of existence.” Abolishing cash would also give governments more power to lift taxes directly from people’s bank accounts, the author argues, noting how “Value added tax, for example, could be automatically levied — and reimbursed — in real time on transactions between liable bank accounts.”

Totalitarianism of the European Financial Oligarchy - Votes change nothing!

The writer also calls for punishing people who use cash by making users “pay for the privilege of anonymity” so they will, “remain affected by monetary policy.” Dated bank notes would lose their value over time, while people would also be charged by banks for swapping electronic reserves for physical cash and vice versa. The article echoes an argument made by Kenneth Rogoff, former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, who has called for high denomination banks notes such as the €100 and €500 notes to be phased out of existence. Rogoff attended a meeting in London earlier this year where he met representatives from the Federal Reserve, the ECB as well as participants from the Swiss and Danish central banks. The issue of banning cash was at the forefront of the agenda. Last year, Rogoff also called for “abolishing physical currency” in order to stop “tax evasion and illegal activity” as well as preventing people from withdrawing money when interest rates are close to zero. 

The agenda to ban cash was also discussed at this year’s secretive Bilderberg Group meeting, which was attended by the Financial Times’ chief economics commentator Martin Wolf. Former Bank of England economist Jim Leaviss penned an article for the London Telegraph earlier this year in which he said a cashless society would only be achieved by “forcing everyone to spend only by electronic means from an account held at a government-run bank,” which would be, “monitored, or even directly controlled by the government.” In the UK, banks are treating the withdrawal of cash in amounts as low as £5,000 as a suspicious activity, while in France, citizens will be banned from making cash payments over €1,000 euros from Tuesday onwards. The withdrawal and deposit of cash over the amount of €1,000 euros will also be subject to ID verification. “There is no more egregious anti-liberty economic policy imaginable than banning cash,” writes Michael Krieger. “Of course, if cash were involuntarily “ended,” there would be a surge in demand for physical gold and silver, which would then necessitate a ban on those items. Then the cycle of economic and financial tyranny would be complete, and crawling our way out of it, nearly impossible.”

The Global Financial Ponzi Scheme

$1,280,000,000,000 = There is only 1.28 trillion dollars worth of U.S. currency floating around out there.
$17,555,165,805,212.27 = 17.5 trillion dollars is the size of the U.S. national debt. It has grown by more than 10 trillion dollars over the past ten years.
$32,000,000,000,000 = 32 trillion dollars  is the total amount of money that the global elite have stashed in offshore banks (that we know about).
$48,611,684,000,000 = 48 trillion dollars is the total exposure that Goldman Sachs has to derivatives contracts.
$59,398,590,000,000 = 59.4 trillion dollars is the total amount of debt (government, 

corporate, consumer, etc.) in the U.S. financial system.  40 years ago, this number was just a little bit above 2 trillion dollars.
$70,088,625,000,000 = 70 trillion dollars is the total exposure that JPMorgan Chase has to derivatives contracts.
$71,830,000,000,000 = 71.8 trillion dollars is the approximate size of the GDP of the entire world.
$75,000,000,000,000 = 75 trillion dollars is approximately the total exposure that German banking giant Deutsche Bank has to derivatives contracts.
$100,000,000,000,000 = 100 trillion dollars is the total amount of government debt in the entire world.  This amount has grown by $30 trillion just since mid-2007.
$223,300,000,000,000 = 223.3 trillion dollars is the approximate size of the total amount of debt in the entire world.
$236,637,271,000,000 = 223.3 trillion dollars is - according to the U.S. government - the total exposure that the top 25 banks in the United States have to derivatives contracts.  But those banks only have total assets of about 9.4 trillion dollars combined.  In other words, the exposure of our largest banks to derivatives outweighs their total assets by a ratio of about 25 to 1.
$710,000,000,000,000 to $1,500,000,000,000,000 = 710 to 1,500 trillion dollars are the estimates of the total notional value of all global derivatives contracts.  At the high end of the range, the ratio of derivatives exposure to global GDP is about 21 to 1. Credits: Michael Snyder

Game Over 2015.75 | Martin Armstrong

"Schaeuble wants a Grexit to put the fear of God into the French!" HERE & HERE

Martin Armstrong: "This is the start of BIG BANG and as the rest of Western nations
raise taxes, the economy is about to fall off a cliff and they bring economic activity
into a swan-dive. They will, as always, blame the private sector. We can see this
decline coming as long-term bonds crashed from May, liquidity has collapsed, and there
is excess cash in the short-end keeping interest rates low ensuring we will see not
just municipalities decline into a debt crisis like Detroit, but we are staring in the
eyes of death insofar as pensions are concerned. Politicians are good for only (1) lies,
(2) corruption, (3) debt, (4) taxes, and (5) death and war."

March 18, 2014 = Pivot of History | The Ascent of a Multi-Polar World System

March 18, 2014 – Address of Russian President Vladimir Putin to State Duma deputies, Federation Council members, heads of Russian regions, Representatives of the Republic of Crimea and Sevastopol, civil society representatives in the Kremlin, and to “The West”:

After the dissolution of bipolarity on the planet, we no longer have stability. Key international institutions are not getting any stronger; on the contrary, in many cases, they are sadly degrading. Our western partners, led by the United States of America, prefer not to be guided by international law in their practical policies, but by the rule of the gun. They have come to believe in their exclusivity and exceptionalism, that they can decide the destinies of the world, that only they can ever be right. They act as they please: here and there, they use force against sovereign states, building coalitions based on the principle “If you are not with us, you are against us.” To make this aggression look legitimate, they force the necessary resolutions from international organisations, and if for some reason this does not work, they simply ignore the UN Security Council and the UN overall.

Vladimir Putin: Against the equality of good and evil.

 

[…] I understand those who came out on Maidan with peaceful slogans against corruption, inefficient state management and poverty […] However, those who stood behind the latest events in Ukraine […] resorted to terror, murder and riots. Nationalists, neo-Nazis, Russophobes and anti-Semites executed this coup […] We understand what is happening; we understand that these actions were aimed against Ukraine and Russia and against Eurasian integration […] We have every reason to assume that the infamous policy of containment, led in the 18th, 19th and 20th centuries, continues today. They are constantly trying to sweep us into a corner because we have an independent position, because we maintain it and because we call things like they are and do not engage in hypocrisy. But there is a limit to everything. And with Ukraine, our western partners have crossed the line.

[…] It is at historic turning points such as these that a nation demonstrates its maturity and strength of spirit. The Russian people showed this maturity and strength through their united support for their compatriots. Russia’s foreign policy position on this matter drew its firmness from the will of millions of our people, our national unity and the support of our country’s main political and public forces […] Obviously, we will encounter external opposition, but this is a decision that we need to make for ourselves. Are we ready to consistently defend our national interests, or will we forever give in, retreat to who knows where? […] Russia will also have to make a difficult decision now, taking into account the various domestic and external considerations. What do people here in Russia think? Here, like in any democratic country, people have different points of view, but I want to make the point that the absolute majority of our people clearly do support what is happening.

In his 2013 annual Presidential address to the Federal Assembly, Vladimir Putin clearly expressed:

[…] Today, many nations are revising their moral values and ethical norms, eroding ethnic traditions and differences between peoples and cultures. Society is now required not only to recognise everyone’s right to the freedom of consciousness, political views and privacy, but also to accept without question the equality of good and evil, strange as it seems, concepts that are opposite in meaning. This destruction of traditional values from above not only leads to negative consequences for society, but is also essentially anti-democratic, since it is carried out on the basis of abstract, speculative ideas, contrary to the will of the majority, which does not accept the changes occurring or the proposed revision of values. We know that there are more and more people in the world who support our position on defending traditional values that have made up the spiritual and moral foundation of civilisation in every nation for thousands of years: the values of traditional families, real human life, including religious life, not just material existence but also spirituality, the values of humanism and global diversity. Of course, this is a conservative position. But speaking in the words of Nikolai Berdyaev, the point of conservatism is not that it prevents movement forward and upward, but that it prevents movement backward and downward, into chaotic darkness and a return to a primitive state.

The President of Russia is leading the global resistance against the Empire of Wall Street and the City of London. He stopped their genocidal depredation in Russia. This is why they hate him, why they attempt to kill him, why the corporate media is cheering thugs of the ilk of Yulia Tymoshenko and Mikhail Khodorkovsky as if they were heroes of democracy. Since 250 years the imperial West is waging wars, destroying nation after nation, producing failed states, terrorism, chaos and millions of casualties. This was the second NATO-coup in Ukraine within a decade. The road to Moscow leads through Kiev. But this time around Vladimir Putin’s Russia was prepared, and not alone: After the latest coup in Ukraine, Crimea hastily joined Russia on March 18, 2014 before becoming subjected to IMF-looting or another ‘civil war’ orchestrated by NATO. The unification of Crimea and Russia is backed by the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). This military and economic alliance was founded in 1996 responding to globalizing NATO-savagery. Today the SCO comprises 6 member states, 5 observer states, 3 dialogue partners, and 3 guest attendances of 5 non-Western civilizations (Russian, Chinese, Muslim, Hindu, Buddhist - 4 nuclear powers among them) from the South China Sea to the Baltic Sea and from the Persian Gulf to the Bay of Bengal. In terms of potential, production, infrastructure, economic growth and prosperity, this is the most successful and promising alliance in recorded history. This is not an empire. It is an alliance of sovereign states and their relations are governed by international law. This is the very opposite to the poisonous 'one-world'-gospel of the globalists and the 'clash-of-civilization'-ideology of the liberals. 

Pro-Russian protesters with banner reading “Odessa for referendum!”
in the center of Odessa, March 23, 2014.

 

China knows very well it is next in NATO’s line for 'freedom' and 'democracy' and that without the SCO and Russia’s energy supply it would fall prey to the Empire. Therefore China supports Russia, Syria, Iran, Sudan, Pakistan, Afghanistan and a new multi-polar world-system. The fascist regime in Kiev has no legitimacy at all, and won’t last. The EU has no means to sanction Russia. The EU is not a superpower. The EU is not the White Knight and won't rescue anybody. The EU is but a deeply corrupted, pitiful and bankrupt US protectorate on the brink of collapse and revolution itself. However, in this latest freedom-and-democracy-scam the EU is once again the colonial aid of the international banking cartel. And once again they came to loot: Ukraine's gold was flown out to London or New York two weeks ago. last week the EU showed up in Kiev offering a multi-billion Euro-credit. Conjured by Mr. Draghi out of nothing. To support the Ukraine. Nobody takes this. The Ukrainians will overthrow Euro-fascism and join the Eurasian Customs Union. Or split up the country. Any sanctions will only strengthen the Eurasian integration and increase unemployment and misery in the EU.

The US will keep playing India as the continental dagger against China and Pakistan until an Indian Putin will emerge and integrate the country in the SCO. Venezuela is fighting imperialism since 1998. Without nuclear defence capabilities and no strong allies in the region, the people of Venezuela may soon perish and see its oil, gas and gold once again stolen and become degraded into poverty. However, with more than 60 % of the world’s population, the momentum towards a new international system, future world trade and economy are intimately related with the SCO and the BRICS. All of them are building up gold reserves and are about to create an independent currency, a BRICS-bank and a BRICS currency reserve pool. Already the SCO and the BRICS could destabilize the Euro and the US dollar by dumping them into the exchange markets. The FED and the ECB would not be able to arrange currency swaps with other countries large enough to buy up the dumped currency, and the exchange values would fall. Such an action could be the response to more hostile NATO activities.

If this is now indeed the “beginning of the end” for the globalist’s Empire, this is still only the very beginning of a long and most dangerous process: The next big NATO war will be the end-game for absolute rule of a cynical world hegemon over the 99% of the global rest. Some Empires die peacefully, destroyed by economic ruin, over-stretch and social implosion; others prefer to doom in an orgy of violence.