Showing posts with label John Bagot Glubb. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John Bagot Glubb. Show all posts

Monday, March 6, 2023

The Fate of Empires | John Bagot Glubb

Lieutenant-General Sir John Bagot Glubb (1897 – 1986), known as Glubb Pasha, was a British army officer, scholar, and author, who led the Transjordan's Arab Legion between 1939 and 1956 as its commanding general. Glubb was a man of his time and class, he wrote some 20 books about the Arab world and Islam, and in 1978 a short treatise titled “The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival”. In this he describes a rising civilization as a society where people have a sense of duty and service, practical attitudes, a strong merchant class, and a desire for conquest.  
 

The characteristics of a falling civilizations include frivolity, love of money instead of duty, excessive reverence for celebrities, and the rise of intellect over action. Despite an empire’s geographic, religious, cultural, and technological differences, they all follow the same pattern of expansion, development, decline, and collapse. Using this knowledge, Glubb hoped that through understanding how empires decline, the British Empire could stand a chance at avoiding the same fate. Although the rise and fall of civilization are as unstoppable as the change of seasons, countries can mitigate losses by preparing for the future. 
 

Glubb formulates a set of patterns that empires experience until their eventual collapse. His framework consists of six stages that are characteristic of superpowers and follows the idea of cyclical paradigms in the historical record. Glubb estimates that on average empires last 250 years or 10 generations:
 
1. The Age of Pioneers (The Outburst)
2. The Age of Conquest
3. The Age of Commerce
4. The Age of Affluence (The High Noon)
5. The Age of Intellect
6. The Age of Decadence (Midnight)

Glubb’s formulation of collapse is inherently controversial, but he understands this keenly. Those living in or around a “collapsing” empire could never truly observe it, at least not directly - after all no citizen easily perceives or admits that the empire is failing or has failed. The human spirit is adaptive, and embraces many harsh and diverse conditions with exceptional ease. It is not a “gradually, then suddenly” - but a perpetuity of gradual decline. A collapse is realized centuries later by future hopefuls far removed, or in Glubb’s grim case, barbarians. Glubb’s sense of collapse implies a steady and progressive softening and weakening of an empire, nation, or power. Empires do not usually begin or end on a certain date. There is normally a gradual period of expansion and then a period of decline. Human affairs are subject to many chances, and it is not to be expected that they could be calculated with mathematical accuracy. 
 
The only thing we learn from history, is that men never learn from history”. His central proposition on collapse stems from the questionable way empires pass down history. Glubb considered an accurate generational transfer of history a crucial guard against collapse. Powers that retained fairly objective histories would win out in the long run as a matter of historical record in Glubb’s view. “Our people are represented as patriotic heroes, their enemies as grasping imperialists, or subversive rebels. In other words, our national histories are propaganda, not well-balanced investigations.” Further, in the wider historical sense, Glubb argues that for world history to be useful - it must be an accurate and collective history of the human race. “Any useful lessons to be derived must be learned by the study of the whole flow of human development, not by the selection of short periods here and there in one country or another.
 

Age of Pioneers
The age of pioneers is marked by a sense of freedom and boldness characteristic of new encounters with the unknown. Pioneers are not limited to conventions or traditions. The leaders of the pioneers are creative, set the stage, and are free to improvise unique solutions and compromises. The old virtues - diligence, courage, honor, and loyalty rule the day. “Uninhibited by textbooks or book learning, action is their solution to every problem.
 

Age of Conquest
The age of conquest is a period of military action and land acquisition. Glubb marks this period by the simmering desire for commerce and wealth by the public. The military may be proud and honorable, but conquest is driven mainly by a merchant class who usher in the age of commerce. “During the military period, glory and honor were the principal objects of ambition. To the merchant, such ideas are but empty words, which add nothing to the bank balance.

 

Age of Commerce
Glubb marks the age of commerce by the ease at which goods are transported. In this period, trade is simplified and the ease of doing business maximized. The empire controls all trade routes, resulting in little to no interdependence in the domains of commerce and travel. “The means of transport were slower, but, when a great empire was in control, commerce was freed from the innumerable shackles imposed upon it today by passports, import permits, customs, boycotts and political interference.


Age of Affluence
The age of affluence is identified by a subtle distinction in the value and utility of education. In an empire’s high noon, knowledge is viewed only as a path to riches, with its practical and virtuous foundations taking an indefinite back seat. Glubb intuits that as with the Arab decline, there is a gradual loss of knowledge that would have bolstered the empire’s institutions. “The Arab moralist, Ghazali (1058-1111), complains in these very same words of the lowering of objectives in the declining Arab world of his time. Students, he says, no longer attend college to acquire learning and virtue, but to obtain those qualifications which will enable them to grow rich.


Age of Intellect
The age of intellect is marked by the common idea that education will solve all the problems in the world. It is this idea that underscores what Glubb terms “the inadequacy of intellect”. Glubb’s banal observation is that problem solving and cohesion among people depend simply on the principles that encourage self–sacrifice, loyalty, courage, and trust. Intellect is a product of these old virtues, and not the primary ingredient. “In a wider national sphere, the survival of the nation depends basically on the loyalty and self–sacrifice of the citizens. The impression that the situation can be saved by mental cleverness, without unselfishness or human self–dedication, can only lead to collapse.


Age of Decadence
The age of decadence is signaled by increased pessimism and cynicism among citizens as the empire marches towards midnight. Civil dissensions predominantly in matters of politics become more tribal and pronounced. The pervasive pessimism and cynicism is assuaged through various means and frivolity becomes the order of the day. Glubb writes: “Frivolity is the frequent companion of pessimism. Let us eat, drink and be merry, for tomorrow we die. The resemblance between various declining nations in this respect is truly surprising. The Roman mob, we have seen, demanded free meals and public games. Gladiatorial shows, chariot races and athletic events were their passion. In the Byzantine Empire the rivalries of the Greens and the Blues in the hippodrome attained the importance of a major crisis. Judging by the time and space allotted to them in the Press and television, football and baseball are the activities which today chiefly interest the public in Britain and the United States respectively. The heroes of declining nations are always the same - the athlete, the singer or the actor. The word ‘celebrity’ today is used to designate a comedian or a football player, not a statesman, a general, or a literary genius.” 
 

In 10th century Baghdad, contemporary historians lamented the decadence of the period, which was signified by who the citizens considered their heroes. [They] deeply deplored the degeneracy of the times in which they lived, emphasizing particularly the indifference to religion, the increasing materialism and the laxity of sexual morals. They lamented also the corruption of the officials of the government and the fact that politicians always seemed to amass large fortunes while they were in office. The historians commented bitterly on the extraordinary influence acquired by popular singers over young people, resulting in a decline in sexual morality. The ‘pop’ singers of Baghdad accompanied their erotic songs on the lute, an instrument resembling the modern guitar. In the second half of the tenth century, as a result, much obscene sexual language came increasingly into use, such as would not have been tolerated in an earlier age. Several khalifs issued orders banning ‘pop’ singers from the capital, but within a few years they always returned.


When the welfare state was first introduced in Britain, it was hailed as a new high-water mark in the history of human development. History, however, seems to suggest that the age of decline of a great nation is often a period which shows a tendency to philanthropy and to sympathy for other races. This phase may not be contradictory to the feeling described in the previous paragraph, that the dominant race has the right to rule the world. For the citizens of the great nation enjoy the role of Lady Bountiful. As long as it retains its status of leadership, the imperial people are glad to be generous, even if slightly condescending. The rights of citizenship are generously bestowed on every race, even those formerly subject, and the equality of mankind is proclaimed. The Roman Empire passed through this phase, when equal citizenship was thrown open to all peoples, such provincials even becoming senators and emperors. The Arab Empire of Baghdad was equally, perhaps even more, generous. During the Age of Conquests, pure-bred Arabs had constituted a ruling class, but in the ninth century the empire was completely cosmopolitan. State assistance to the young and the poor was equally generous. University students received government grants to cover their expenses while they were receiving higher education. The State likewise offered free medical treatment to the poor. The first free public hospital was opened in Baghdad in the reign of Harun al-Rashid (786-809), and under his son, Mamun, free public hospitals sprang up all over the Arab world from Spain to what is now Pakistan. The impression that it will always be automatically rich causes the declining empire to spend lavishly on its own benevolence, until such time as the economy collapses, the universities are closed and the hospitals fall into ruin. It may perhaps be incorrect to picture the welfare state as the high-water mark of human attainment. It may merely prove to be one more regular milestone in the life-story of an ageing and decrepit empire.
 
 
It is of interest to note that decadence is the disintegration of a system, not of its individual members. The habits of the members of the community have been corrupted by the enjoyment of too much money and too much power for too long a period. The result has been, in the framework of their national life, to make them selfish and idle. A community of selfish and idle people declines, internal quarrels develop in the division of its dwindling wealth, and pessimism follows, which some of them endeavor to drown in sensuality or frivolity. In their own surroundings, they are unable to redirect their thoughts and their energies into new channels.
 

But when individual members of such a society emigrate into entirely new surroundings, they do not remain conspicuously decadent, pessimistic or immoral among the inhabitants of their new homeland. Once enabled to break away from their old channels of thought, and after a short period of readjustment, they become normal citizens of their adopted countries. Some of them, in the second and third generations, may attain pre-eminence and leadership in their new communities. This seems to prove that the decline of any nation does not undermine the energies or the basic character of its members. Nor does the decadence of a number of such nations permanently impoverish the human race.

Decadence is both mental and moral deterioration, produced by the slow decline of the community from which its members cannot escape, as long as they remain in their old surroundings. But, transported elsewhere, they soon discard their decadent ways of thought, and prove themselves equal to the other citizens of their adopted country. Neither is decadence physical. The citizens of nations in decline are sometimes described as too physically emasculated to be able to bear hardship or make great efforts. This does not seem to be a true picture. Citizens of great nations in decadence are normally physically larger and stronger than those of their barbarian invaders [...] Decadence is a moral and spiritual disease, resulting from too long a period of wealth and power, producing cynicism, decline of religion, pessimism and frivolity. The citizens of such a nation will no longer make an effort to save themselves, because they are not convinced that anything in life is worth saving."

If superpowers inevitably break down around the 10th generation, then in Glubb’s framework the global empire of the United States would be superseded by another great power by the year 2026 at the very least.

Reference
 
See also:
 
When the ordinary thought of a highly cultivated people begins
to regard 'having children' as a question of pro's and con's,
the great turning point has come
. - Oswald Spengler, 1918

Sunday, February 26, 2023

American Unipolar World Supremacy Is Over | 250 Year Empire Cycle Ended

The Global American Uni-Polar World Supremacy is over. Since last week China has officially aligned and merged its foreign policy interests with those of Russia, and considers the US an hostile, aggressive, and destructive rogue superpower, very harmful to the entire international community. The US Empire is now in implosion mode into it's timely demise during 2023. This is what Serge Bernard's 250 Year Empire Life Cycle suggests; the Fourth Turning took place in 2008, and the collapse-indicator tick-lists in Lieutenant-General Sir John Bagot Glubb's work allow for very similar conclusions. 
 

 
China and Russia just merged their national interests and all means available in order to establish a new alternative system of international relations, law, finance and trade. Not a multi-polar, but a new bi-polar world system with (1.) the US Empire reduced to the Collective West, consisting mainly of Canada, Australia and some failed vassal-states in western Eurasia, and (2.) the Russian-Chinese Big Space, the Heartland, absorbing the entire Global South in an instant. 
 
All ingredients for hell about to break lose upon the dollar system are in, and Ray Dalio's 'perfect storm' is making landfall?

Reference:
 

Tuesday, July 3, 2018

Fourth of July | A Masonic Holiday

The Eye of Horus, the Eye of Providence or the All-Seeing Eye
of God
inside a triangle (symbolizing deity) surrounded by the
glow of Sirius, the Blazing Star of masonry (here on the gate of
Aachen Cathedral, Germany) is also part of the reverse side of
the Great Seal of the United States.
Independence Day on 4th of July is commonly associated not with masonry but with fireworks, parades, barbecues, baseball games, family reunions, political speeches and ceremonies. However, the legal separation of the Thirteen Colonies from Great Britain in 1776 actually occurred on July 2nd, when the Second Continental Congress voted to approve a resolution of independence that had been proposed in June by Richard Henry Lee of Virginia declaring the United States independent from Great Britain's rule. After voting for independence, Congress turned its attention to the Declaration of Independence, a statement explaining this decision, which had been prepared by a Committee of Five, with Thomas Jefferson as its principal author. Congress debated and revised the wording of the Declaration, finally approving it two days later on July 4th. It was read from the balcony of the Council chamber of the State House to the citizens of Philadelphia on July 8th 1776. So why do the United States celebrate the 4th of July? Since many of the founding fathers were enlightened masons (illuminati) of the Ancient and Accepted Scottish Rite, and freemasonry is rooted in ancient mystery schools of solar worship, of course the date of the American Declaration of Independence was not arbitrary: In 1776 the solar aphelion (greek apo = from + helios = Sun = aphelion = away from the Sun) and the conjunction of the Sun with Sirius both happened to occur on July 4th.

Independent farthest from the Sun (aphelion):
2018 Jul 06 (Fri) 12:46
2019 Jul 04 (Wed) 18:10
2020 Jul 04 (Wed) 07:34
Sun conjunct Sirius:
2018 Jul 03 (Tue) 02:00
2019 Jul 03 (Wed) 07:41
2020 Jul 02 (Thu) 13:31
Every year during the first days of July the Sun conjoins Sirius at 13.5 degrees Cancer, that is, the Sun moves in front of Sirius. Interestingly, this occurs when the major axis of the Earth’s orbit is also farthest from the Sun. Sirius is located in the constellation Canis Majoris – the Big Dog – (RA 6h45m8.9s and Dec -16°42'52.1" or 101.2833 degrees longitude and -16.7144 degrees declination) and is therefore known as the dog star. It is over twenty times brighter than our Sun and is twice as massive. At night time, Sirius is the brightest star in the sky and its blue-white glare never failed to amaze stargazers since the dawn of time. Sirius is said to be the Sun of our Sun, and as such more important for men on Earth than even the Galactic Center.

The Washington Monument is constructed within a Vesica Pisces
that is created by the orbiting bodies of our Sun and Sirius.
In Ancient Egypt, Sirius was regarded as the most important star in the sky. In fact, it was astronomically the foundation of the Egyptians’ entire religious system. It was revered as Sothis and was associated with Isis, the mother goddess of Egyptian mythology. Isis is the female aspect of a trinity formed by herself, Osiris and their son Horus. Ancient Egyptians held Sirius in such a high regard that most of their deities were associated, in some way or another, with Sirius. Anubis, the dog-headed god of death, had an obvious connection with the dog star and Toth-Hermes, the divine messenger and great teacher of humanity, was also esoterically connected with Sirius. The Egyptian calendar system was based on the heliacal rising of Sirius that occurred just before the annual flooding of the Nile during summer. In the Egyptian Book of the Dead, Sirius is described as the place where souls go after they leave the body, and Egyptian temples were oriented toward Sirius. The star’s celestial movement was also observed and revered by ancient Greeks, Sumerians, Babylonians and countless other civilizations. Sirius was therefore considered sacred and its apparition in the sky was accompanied with feasts and celebrations. The dog star heralded the coming of the hot and dry days of July and August, hence the popular term the dog days of summer. Since antiquity there has been much compelling speculation about a binary system of our Sun Helios and Sirius. 

The presidential inauguration ceremony performed once every four
years at exactly high noon and 19.5 days into the new year on the
balcony of the U.S. Capitol (the ever pregnant belly of Isis) facing
the Washington Monument (the erect phallus of Osiris) is giving birth
to the next U.S. president.
In this system the perigee cycle between the two causes periodicities of massive celestial upheavals and is the foundation of the Yuga cycles. (What the naked eye perceives as a single star is in fact a binary star system, consisting of a white main-sequence star of spectral type A0 or A1, termed Sirius A, and a faint white dwarf companion of spectral type DA2, called Sirius B). 

The esoteric foundation of the United States as well as that of the entire modern Western world rests upon this ancient Egyptian astro-theology. It is therefore important to understand that Egypt became Greece, Greece became Rome, Rome became Venice, Venice became Amsterdam and England, and England finally became the imperial United States or the latest incarnation of ancient Egypt. True, if there is an actual guiding intelligence to man's evolution, it most certainly should be associated with Sirius. And the United States, with its natal Sun conjunct Sirius, would represent the clearest channel for this extra-human agency to manifest its will, whatever that may be. However, for those assuming that supernatural guidance was America's eternal fate and triumph, it might be wise also to recall that so far all empires have had an expiration date: Regardless of financial strength, political power and knowledge of previous history life cycles, no empire leader has ever been able to prevent its supremacy from collapsing. For instance, the successive Chinese dynasties would always rise, stay and fall regardless of lessons learned from the past. Empire life cycles would repeat over and over following a same cyclical pattern of around 248 years: 1776 + 248 = 2024 (see also HERE).

Tuesday, December 6, 2016

From Conquest To Affluence To Collapse | The 250 Year Empire Life Cycle

Serge Bernard (Jul 25, 2016) - Regardless of financial strength, political power and knowledge of previous history life cycles, no empire leader has ever been able to prevent its supremacy from collapsing. For instance, the successive Chinese dynasties would always rise, stay and fall regardless of lessons learned from the past. Empire life cycles would repeat over and over following a same cyclical pattern. 
 
 
In 1977, Sir John Glubb wrote an essay titled The Fate of Empires: "during 3 millenaries the average superpowers duration period has been consistently of about 250 years […] the full 250-year cycle corresponds to about ten 25-year generations. This 250-year duration presents an unexpected consistency, especially if we consider all the major changes during the 3,000 years in transportation speed and weapons sophistication, which has expanded territories conquests from local to global. Regardless of the historical period, the life cycle was always of about 250 years."

 
Something bigger than their leaders was inclining empires to rise and also to fall. While we could seek a spiritual explanation of divine influence, we can also look at the sky from an astrologer perspective and find out that there are perfect correlations between the 250-year empires live cycles and Pluto’s 248 year orbital cycle. When a country is born, Pluto occupies a certain position in the sky, which eventually will return to the same position in about 248 years. That period corresponds to the entire superpower life cycle. 

In his essay, Sir John Glubb also revealed that all empires cycles in history have followed a same 8-phase pattern process, which is represented below […] here are the empires 8 common phases and their corresponding heroes. While not necessarily of equal duration, each phase would last an average of about 41 years.

During the past 3,000 years the average life expectancy of superpowers has been 250 years.
All Empire Cycles followed the same 8-phase pattern, and this pattern along with the Pluto Cycles
indicates that 2015-2022 will be the last 7 years of the USA as the world superpower.
 
The USA is now in the final phase of the superpower life cycle pattern. The USA was born on July 4, 1776. That day Pluto was positioned at 27°33′ of Capricorn and will return to that same natal position during the years 2021-2023, which is about 248 years later as found with most of the historical empires lives. During that orbital period, transiting Pluto covered all angles from 0° to 360° with natal Pluto. Angles multiple of 45 degrees are critical and correspond to tensions during each of the 8 phases transitions.  

At left is a rudimentary historical outline associating USA superpower life cycle with Pluto orbital cycle. Human death is unavoidable regardless of wisdom and knowledge about what happened to previous dead people, and so are empires that rise and live until their inexorable collapse. Superpowers' life and death patterns will repeat itself whether their leaders study past history cycles or not. 

 
Cosmic life is bigger than human life. The USA’s last phase runs from Pluto semi-square in 2001 to Pluto's return to its natal position in 2022. It is worth noting the year 2001 amazing synchronicity between Pluto semi-square (45°), the historic empire transition from decadence to collapse and the September 11 terrorist attack. Now, during their last phase from 2001 to 2022, the USA will not give up its supremacy without a full fledge military, political, economic and religious war. The next financial bubble burst may be fatal and global. USA will win the battle against terrorism, but will lose the supremacy war against the rest of the world, where contenders such as China are already preparing themselves for the opportunity to fill the vacuum. This process started in 2001 and most USA power strategies miserably failed ever since. We are now seeing a growing world chaos that will likely expand into a worldwide war during the next 7 years until USA final supremacy collapse around 2022-2023.
 
Reference:
 
See also:


Lieutenant-General Sir John Bagot Glubb (1978):
The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival (HERE)