Showing posts with label Nasdaq 100. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Nasdaq 100. Show all posts

Saturday, December 9, 2023

The Grinch Barometer | Wayne Whaley

Define the Grinch Barometer as the S&Ps performa over the 3 trading days before and after Xmas (6 days). Stay tuned for Grinch spottings.
 
 
 
Since 1950, a negative Grinch has been followed by a positive January in 16 of those 19 years (average month = +4.3%) and a positive calendar year in 18 of those 19 cases (average year = +19.4%). To the contraire, eleven of the 12 S&P double digit loss years since 1950 followed positive Grinch’s.
 
 
On Dec 08 (Fri) the
VIX printed a new yearly low at 12.35.

S&P 500 McClellan Summation Index - the long-term version of the McClellan Oscillator  - 
kept steadily rising for six week and closed at 858 last Friday. No reversal.
 
The High Low Logic Index (last Friday = 1.467) indicates no reversal and that the NASDAQ is nowhere near a major top yet. Every major high since 2000 happened only after the logic index had reached 1.92 or higher prior to the top: 2000 = 1.92; 2007 = 2.01; 2015 = 2.18; 2018 = 2.05; 2019 (2020 crash) = 2.17; 2021 = 2.09. 
 
Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily bars)
However, the DJIA now closed the sixth week / the 27th trading day above the 9-day moving average a.k.a. the market maker re-balance level within all different weekly range templates. Not sure when this happened last time. All the shallow consolidations during the past four weeks occurred around the 3-day moving average only. Spectacular. Meanwhile the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ consolidated last week around the 9 DMA into Thursday before taking out the previous weeks high once again - but by some points only. Nasdaq actually printed lower weekly lows and closed on a lower high. What goes up will come down again to 50%+ levels - sooner or later. Next Monday, December 11, the DJIA will open the seventh week / the 28th trading day above the 9 DMA. Impressive outside fourth quarter range on a new 2023 high. The S&P 500 touched the July 27 yearly high to the pip but did not break to the upside. Lagging behind the other two major indexes by at least a single pip. Quite fantastic. Monday, December 10, will be 45 solar longitude degrees away from the November 27 major low. Tuesday, December 12 looks like a New Moon and 'Sensitive Solar Degree' December high. Saturday-Sunday, December 16-17 is a turn day in the geocentric Bradley Siderograph and should mark a low in US stocks. 

Wednesday, November 29, 2023

Nasdaq 100

Nasdaq 100 (monthly bars). Yearly, Quarterly, Monthly Highs and Lows and Targets. First month up.
Cup & Handle pattern? No.  
 
 
 
 Nasdaq 100 (weekly bars). Four weeks up. Current inside.

Nasdaq 100 (daily bars)
 
Nasdaq 100 (1 hour bars) - Last week narrow range. This one still inside. Close above balance line. 
 
Wednesday, Thursday, Friday 'Major Red News'.
 
 

Sunday, November 26, 2023

US Stock Indexes | Shallow Retracement Into Early-Mid-December Now Likely

Dow Jones Industrial Average (weekly bars)

Dow Jones Industrial Average (daily bars)
Monthly weekly and daily trends are up. 

S&P 500 (weekly bars)

S&P 500 (daily bars)
Eleven days, three levels and nearly 6 * ATR above the re-accumulation low of November 9.

Nasdaq 100 (weekly bars) 

Nasdaq 100 (daily bars) 

CBOE Volatility Index (monthly bars). Very close to multi-year lows.

SPX Put/Call Ratio = 1.63 for Nov 24 2023.
 
 Seth Golden (Nov 25, 2023):
The Trifecta of Overbought Conditions:
92% of SPX above 20-DMA, highest in 2+ yrs
McClellan Oscillator > 80+
S&P 500 2 std. above 50-DMA (RSI also 70+)
 
 
 
Four weeks+ of price expansion beyond daily, weekly and quarterly levels. Last week narrow daily and weekly ranges. Multi-month inflation melt-up? Possible. Allen Reminick suggests a creep up into November 27 (Mon) or December 1 (Fri) followed by some rather shallow 23-50% move down into December 8 or mid-month, some X-mas rally, sideways into January 12 and up into March-April 2024. Possible. [ Allen Reminick (Nov 20, 2023) - S&P 500 Projection Into June 2024 ]
 
See also:

Saturday, March 18, 2017