Monday, July 28, 2025

The Art of the $1.3 Trillion 'Screw You Deal': EU Pays Up, US Gives Nothing

The $1.3 trillion US–EU trade agreement, reached after a tense 40-minute meeting between POTUS Trump and the President of the European Commission Ursula von der Leyen at Trump’s Scottish golf course on July 27, avoids a full-blown trade war. 
 
The US gave absolutely nothing, and Trump celebrates his "biggest trade deal" yet.
 
As expected, Brussels, the tribute-bound US vassal, folded under pressure, and the circus ringmaster turned a century of European diplomacy into an intergalactic howler: The EU accepted a 15% US tariff on its exports—while the US kept zero tariffs in return. Europe agreed to invest $600 billion into the US economy, pledged to buy hundreds of billions' worth of overpriced American weapons, and committed to $750 billion in US LNG purchases—$250 billion over the next three years alone—because apparently that's better than cheap gas through Nord Stream. In exchange, the US gave... absolutely nothing.
 
Von der Leyen, "You're known as a tough negotiator and dealmaker." Trump, "But fair." 
Von der Leyen, "And fair." Trump adds, "That's less important." Room erupts in laughter.
 
Steel, aluminum, and pharmaceuticals remain excluded. This 'screw you deal' is seen as an absolute geopolitical and geoeconomic win for Trump, reinforcing his strategy of tariff threats and pressure, echoed in recent deals with Japan, Vietnam, and others. 
 
Brussels' Barbie—Trump’s total contempt: incompetent, corrupt, compromised.

Ref
erence:
 
It is difficult, indeed.

S&P 500 and NASDAQ Close to 40-Day Hurst Cycle Peak | David Hickson

For the S&P 500, an 18-month cycle trough occurred in early April, followed by an 80-day cycle trough in mid-June and a recent 40-day cycle trough. A 20-week cycle trough is anticipated around mid-August, with the 20-week cycle FLD expected to provide support. 
 
S&P 500 (daily bars): Expect a 40-day cycle peak soon, and a mid-August 20-week cycle trough.

The market is currently in a bullish trend, forming a second 40-day cycle peak soon, after which it should decline into the 20-week trough. Shorter cycle FLDs (5-day, 10-day, 20-day, 40-day, 80-day) will be monitored for peak confirmation and to generate downside targets. The trough may form above the 20-week FLD due to the bullish trend.

For the NASDAQ, the April trough is now identified as an 18-month cycle trough, previously considered a 40-week trough, due to persistent bullishness aligning with the S&P 500. An 80-day cycle trough formed in mid-June, and a second 40-day cycle peak is expected soon, followed by a decline into a 20-week cycle trough in mid-August, with support at the 20-week FLD.
 
 NASDAQ (daily bars): Expect a 40-day cycle peak soon, 
and a rather shallow mid-August 20-week cycle trough.

Shorter cycle FLDs will be watched for peak confirmation. No significant changes have occurred since the last update, and both indices are expected to follow similar cycle paths.

 
Hur
st's Nominal Model, represented as a series of sinusoids, is summed to create the black composite model:' The orange line is the 18-month cycle, the light green the 40-week cycle, dark green the 20-week component, light blue the 80-day component, dark blue the 40-day component and finally the 20-day cycle is the purple sinusoid. The X axis represents the number of days. 
The wavelengths are average values rather than exact measurements. 
 
 See also:

S&P 500 Likely Topping 40-Week Hurst Cycle This Week | Krasi

The pattern is on track to complete this week at week 34, in line with the projected 40-week cycle high (typical range: 32–36 weeks). Market breadth is deteriorating, with persistent negative divergences confirming a sell bias.

An ideal impulsive structure in wave C or Y suggests that the market is nearing the end of a five-wave impulsive move
(waves 1 through 5) within either wave C of a corrective pattern (e.g., a zigzag or flat) or wave Y of a complex correction
(e.g., a triangle or double/triple three).

This likely marks a significant top—at minimum a 40-week high—with increased probability that it’s the 4-year cycle peak. Minor waves 4 and 5 remain to complete, potentially finalizing an ideal impulsive structure in wave C or Y, thus terminating the broader pattern.

Reference:
Krasi (July 28, 2025)  - Quick Update.

Every dip's a wave—until it’s not.

See also:

Friday, July 25, 2025

August 2025 Post-Election Year Seasonality of US Stock Indexes | Jeff Hirsch

August was the best DJIA month from 1901–1951, driven by agriculture and farming. Since 1988, however, it has become the worst month for DJIA and Russell 2000, and the second worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 1000, with average returns from +0.1% (NASDAQ) to –0.8% (DJIA). In August 2022, all major indexes fell over 4%; in 2023, losses exceeded 1.8%.
 

Since 1950, in post-election years (dashed lines in chart above), August typically starts strong with average gains in the first two trading days, then declines until shortly after mid-month. A rebound of varying size and length usually follows, before major indexes end the month in choppy or sideways trading.
 
The S&P 500 rises steadily through July (blue STA Aggregate Cycle), 
peaks in early August, and pulls back into late August.
 
In post-election years, August has been even weaker: it’s the worst month for DJIA and Russell 1000, second worst for S&P 500, NASDAQ, and Russell 2000. Average losses range from –0.5% (Russell 2000) to –1.5% (DJIA), with more down Augusts than up across all indexes.
  
Reference:
 
 
Bank of America (BoA) analyst Paul Ciana highlights a historical S&P 500 trend since 1928, where the average trend tended to be frontloaded in July, peaking by the end of August and correcting lower in September. However, since 2015 a similar pattern with a mid-August peak developed while the median trend sees a late September peak.

The summer doldrums (late June to early September) typically see 20-40% lower trading volumes and variable volatility due to reduced market participation. Equities, bonds, commodities, and forex show subdued activity, with occasional volatility spikes due to low liquidity, and, in August 2025, possibly from more US tariffs craze and geopolitical events. 
 
  
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report (see above) reveals extreme positioning in VIX futures, with dealers (= banks, broker-dealers, intermediaries managing risk from client trades, not speculating) holding substantial long positions and CTAs (= hedge funds, who are on the other side of the trade, typically as speculators) showing their largest short exposure since November–December 2021—a pattern that has frequently preceded spikes in the VIX. This unusual market setup suggests potential volatility in early August 2025 and aligns with Namze's forecast of an 80-day cycle low in the VIX during that period. However, the resolution may be delayed due to the scale of the positioning. 


According to BofA Global Research, the average US Presidential Cycle Year 1
(1928-2024) peaks in July and falls around 8% by year-end.
 
A seasonal cycle analysis by Ned Davis Research on the 2025 S&P 500 composite—blending the standard seasonal, 4-year Presidential, and 10-year decennial cycles—projects a current peak, choppy action through October, a late-year drawdown,
and a strong Q4 rally. August and September appear as potential weak spots.

 Bitcoin Seasonal Pattern 2018-2024 vs 2025.
 

See also:

Cosmic Cluster Days | August 2025

Heliocentric Cosmic Cluster Days (CCDs) and financial markets do not display a consistent polarity or directional bias. The 'noise channel' serves as a signal filter, with the upper and lower limits of the channel being empirically defined. That said, swing directions, along with swing highs and lows also within the 'noise channel,' may correlate with or coincide with short-term market trends and reversals.
 
  Cosmic Cluster Days  |   Composite Line  |  Noise Channel 
  = Full Moon | = New Moon |   = Lunar Declination max North and  = max South立春Solar Terms
 
Cosmic Cluster Days in August 2025:
 Jul 30 (Wed) | Aug 13 (Wed) | Aug 18 (Mon) | Aug 24 (Sun) | Sep 08 (Mon)
  
For previous CCDs, click [HERE]. For background on the author, the concept, and the calculation method, click [HERE].
 
Geocentric and Heliocentric Bradley Turning Points, click [HERE]. 
Sensitive Degrees of the Sun, click [HERE].
Planet Speed (Retrogradity), click [HERE].   
Planetary Declinations, click [HERE].
Lunation Cycle, click [HERE].  

The SoLunar Rhythm in August 2025.
 
Mercury at Inferior Conjunction on Thursday, July 31, 2025 at 19:36 EDT.
Mercury at Greatest Elongation on Tuesday, August 19, 2025 at 5:59 EDT.
Mercury at Perihelion on Wednesday, August 27, 2025 at 08:23 EDT.
Total Lunar Eclipse on Sunday, September 7, 2025 at 14:11 EDT.

89 Seconds to Midnight on the Doomsday Clock | Jeffrey Sachs

There are nine countries known to possess nuclear weapons. Perhaps more do, but nine are confirmed. Most of these countries are in geopolitical or diplomatic conflict with at least one other nuclear power. In the case of the United States and Russia, they are in open conflict—specifically in Ukraine—which is in fact a war between the US and Russia, and an extremely dangerous one. 

The world is sick of the US, Zionism, and I$raHell.


We must understand the global scene clearly in order to avoid terrible, potentially catastrophic mistakes. The US seems unable to accept a world in which it is no longer the sole superpower. But that era is over. The future is multipolar. The sooner Washington accepts this, the safer we will all be.
 
I often refer to the Doomsday Clock created by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists—a US publication founded in 1947 after the US atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. [...] When the clock was first introduced, it was set at 7 minutes to midnight. [...] Today, the clock stands at just 89 seconds to midnight.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described Gaza’s residents as "vicious animals." 
When asked whether he would call for a ceasefire, Rubio replied, "I will not do that."
21st-century Nazism or plain and simple Zionism?
 
The US sees every conflict as a zero-sum game—one side must win, and the other must lose. There is no room for compromise, coexistence, or mutual respect. But the world doesn’t work that way. In our deeply interconnected and nuclear-armed world, we must find ways to cooperate—even with rivals.

The US needs to abandon its imperial mindset and embrace a new paradigm: one based on multipolarity, mutual respect, and the rule of international law. That is the only path to peace—not just in Ukraine or the Middle East, but globally. And I believe China has an important role to play in this transformation.
 
China has consistently advocated for a multipolar world, a peaceful international order, and respect for sovereignty. These are not just slogans; they are the foundation for a workable global system in the 21st century. China’s own development since 1980 has shown that economic progress does not require military aggression. Instead, China has focused on infrastructure, education, trade, technology, and long-term planning.


The Belt and Road Initiative, launched over a decade ago, has helped dozens of countries—especially in the Global South—gain access to much-needed infrastructure. Rather than exporting war, China is exporting railways, highways, ports, and power grids. That is a model the world needs. But unfortunately, the United States sees China’s rise not as a positive development, but as a threat.

Washington policymakers talk about “decoupling,” “containment,” and even “strategic rivalry.” They send warships through the Taiwan Strait and arms to Taipei. They push military alliances in the Pacific and increase military budgets, all in the name of “competition.” But what does that competition really mean? If it’s about innovation, education, clean energy, and development—then fine. Let’s compete to build a better world. But if it’s about military encirclement, economic warfare, and ideological confrontation—then we are heading toward disaster. 

Monday, July 21, 2025

100% Chance of Nuclear War as Early as August │ Martin Armstrong

Six weeks ago, financial and geopolitical cycle analyst Martin Armstrong was signaling a major turn toward war. Now, Armstrong says, "The chances of war with a nuclear exchange are at 100%. Plan on it—this is coming."

» The chances of a war involving a nuclear exchange are at 100%. 
Plan for it—this is coming. Starting in August, this whole situation is going to escalate.  «
 
Can the world avoid nuclear war with President Trump’s 50-day deadline given to Russia to make peace in Ukraine? Armstrong says, "You do not threaten your adversary, who is at your same level, publicly. If you want to say something like that, you do it privately in a phone call. Now, what will happen is Putin cannot possibly sign a peace deal. What—are you crazy—to do this in 50 days? We have staff in Germany, and I was told by my staff that a 60-year-old friend was told to report for duty. 
 
»
There is a 100% chance that NATO will trigger a total nuclear war within the next year. «
Martin Armstrong, July 23, 2025.
 
I had a friend who was at the NATO 'Summit on Peace in Ukraine' in Switzerland, and he called me when it was over and said, ‘Holy crap, this has nothing to do with peace anymore. This is all about preparing for war. Everybody should start getting ready for drafts, to start going that way.’ They want war. They are not backing off."

 » They want war. They are not backing off. «
 
Armstrong’s computer, Socrates, is signaling war as early as next month. Armstrong says, "Starting in August, this whole thing is going to be escalating up. Our computer has what we call a ‘Panic Cycle’ within our war cycles for 2026. That is not good. I don’t know what the hell Trump is smoking. My computer has been projecting war, and it is projecting war going into 2026. This is not looking good, and Europe will lose. It is as simple as that."

Saturday, July 19, 2025

"Bull Hook" Toby Crabel Price Pattern in the S&P 500

The Toby Crabel Bull Hook pattern, present on July 18 (Fri), in the S&P 500 Cash Index, implies a potential short-term upward move for trading starting July 21, 2025. 
 
A Bull Hook happens when a bar has a lower range than the previous one, with its opening price
higher than the previous bar’s high and its closing price lower than the previous bar’s close.
 
Price action created the narrowest range of the last 8 days with a lower daily close. The daily bar has a "hook" shape (a bull flag on lower timeframes), hinting at a potential reversal to the upside due to consolidation and a shift in sentiment. The Bull Hook pattern is generally bullish, opening above the previous day's high and closing lower with a narrowing range. It's often followed by upward price moves in the days after. 
 
A recent analysis by Ali Casey provides additional insights. The Bull Hook pattern has limitations, including its better performance in trending or volatile markets, the potential for false signals and losses in some cases, and its reliance on precise execution, which can be influenced by news or macroeconomic events.
 

Friday, July 18, 2025

Simple ICT Day Trading Strategy That Works Every Day │ JadeCap

This trading strategy focuses on entering positions based on significant daily highs and lows, utilizing ICT's "Power of Three" framework—accumulation, manipulation, and distribution. With this approach, I earned $4.5 million and I’m here to show you how simple it can be: 
 
» Do not trade if the market has already hit the target high/low. «
 
The Key is to target historical levels beyond just the last 24 hours and to use the New York midnight open for optimal entry points. By staying committed to the market direction from the previous day and timing your trades around key sessions like New York or London (ICT Kill Zones), you can capture manipulation moves for more favorable risk-to-reward ratios. 
 
» I’m here to show you how simple it can be. « 
 
Now, I'll walk you through the three-step process I use to achieve results every day:

1.) Identify Key LevelsDetermine the previous daily high or low as the target based on bullish or bearish conviction from prior day’s close.
2.) Assess Market Context: Confirm the market is trading below the previous daily high (for bullish trades) or above the previous daily low (for bearish trades) to avoid chasing price.
3.) Apply Power of Three:
Accumulation: Identify a range (e.g., Asian or London session) where orders build up.
Manipulation: Look for a temporary move against the expected direction (e.g., bearish move in a bullish setup) to trap traders.
Distribution: Enter trades as the market moves toward the target high/low, ideally near the midnight open for better risk-to-reward.


Entry and Risk Management
:
  • Enter trades on lower time frames (e.g., hourly) using setups like fair value gaps, order blocks, or liquidity raids that align with the high time frame direction.
  • Place stop losses logically (e.g., at 50% of a Fair Value Gap or below a key level).
  • Exit trades based on time (e.g., end of a 4-hour candle) or when the target is reached, avoiding overnight holds for futures.
Avoid Common Pitfalls:
  • Do not trade if the market has already hit the target high/low.
  • Avoid setups misaligned with the high time frame direction.
  • Trade smaller or not at all if the market has expanded in your direction before entry.
Reference:
 


See
 also:

Thursday, July 17, 2025

ICT Intraday Liquidity & Volatility Trading Playbook │ JadeCap

This strategy focuses on how price reacts to liquidity and volatility during the trading day. Liquidity refers to the areas on a chart where other traders have placed stop-loss orders, usually just above recent highs or just below recent lows. The market often moves into these areas to trigger those stops, and then either reverses sharply or continues strongly in the same direction.

Trade Example - NQ Short (1-H Chart)
 
The goal of this strategy is to spot those liquidity grabs, wait for a clear reaction, and then enter with confidence—either to trade the reversal or the continuation. The method is built for traders who prefer to focus on one trading day at a time, using clear logic, session structure, and precise timing.
 
On this episode of Chart Fanatics we are joined by Kyle Ng (AKA Jadecap). Regarded as ICT's best student and recently achieved a world record payout with Apex. Kyle reveals his complete ICT playbook that allowed him to generate millions from the markets. In this episode you'll learn how to manage open exposure and lock in profits, how to predict the next daily candle and the psychology behind avoiding greed in a trade. Riz Iqbal, May 15, 2025.

Each trade begins with a daily bias: a simple outlook on whether price is likely to move up or down today. Then the trader watches for session liquidity raids (like the Asian or London session highs/lows being taken out), and enters only after confirmation appears through a fair value gap, market structure shift, or divergence between markets. This model works well for intraday trades but can also be used for swing trades when the higher time frame aligns with the setup.

To take a trade using this model, the following must be true:

Clear Daily Bias: Decide if you’re bullish or bearish for the day using the daily chart.
Consider recent highs, lows, inefficiencies, and where the price is likely to go next.
Session Liquidity Zones Marked: These are common stop zones and entry traps:
Previous Day’s High and Low
Asian Session High/Low
London Session High/Low
Wait for a Liquidity Raid: A key session level must be taken out during the New York session — this is your signal
that stop orders have been hit and a potential move is beginning.
Confirmation on Lower Time Frame (15m / 5m). After the liquidity raid, wait for one of these confirmations:
Fair Value Gap (FVG)
Market Structure Shift (MSS)
Turtle Soup (false breakout and reversal)
Breaker Block
Ideal Time Window
Trade setups should form between 9:30 and 11:30 AM EST/EDT.
 
Key Differences Between Internal and External Liquidity.

Target & ExitYour target depends on the setup type. Intraday Targets: Opposite session liquidity, fair value gaps, or  equal highs/
lows. If the trade slows near midday, consider exiting  even before the full target is reached.
Swing Targets: Use higher time frame liquidity zones (daily/weekly highs or lows), imbalances, or major structure. 
Swing trades can be held for multiple days as long as the bias and structure support it. Use time-of-day awareness, price behavior, and your risk profile to decide whether to hold or exit early.

Pros & Cons of the Strategy
This model is designed to deliver high quality, repeatable setups — but like any trading method, there are key things to understand before using it. Note: The cons listed here aren’t disadvantages. They are things to be aware of — important characteristics that require patience, discipline, and proper management to make the model work effectively.
 

Trade Example - NQ Short (15-Min Chart)

Reference:
ooooOoooo
 
If markets continually trend higher, any run on short-term highs should only be seen as short term liquidity being taken. Any retracement lower should be framed as a return to internal range liquidity prior to continuation.This keeps you on the RIGHT side of the market and you stop anticipating major reversals. Never try to pick tops and bottoms. Leave that to the big boys. We only want to ride their coattails. JadeCap's Trading Room, July 16, 2025.
 
Looking for Tuesdays highs on ES. JadeCap's Trading Room, July 17, 2025, 9:03.
 
I stopped adding new concepts and tools and just focused on properly executing what I've already learned. A few lines, context, and ironclad risk management. Stop focusing on the P&L and the size of your trades. If you can trade 1 micro you can trade 10 minis. But you can't do that at scale without a solid PROCESS. JadeCap's Trading Room, July 17, 2025, 14:47